Even as the region’s COVID-19 case count continued piling up, MMR emerged as one of the most buoyant residential markets in Q1 2021. It saw the highest yearly decline (8%) in total unsold housing stock by the end of this quarter – from 2,13,180 units as of Q1 2020-end to 1,97,040 units as of Q1 2021-end. It was the highest y-o-y decline of unsold housing inventory in the last 7 years. In previous years, MMR’s stock either increased y-o-y or declined by no more than 3%.

Notably, the overall stock fell despite ample new supply hitting the market during this and the preceding quarter. MMR saw 14,820 new units added in Q1 2021 – the highest among the top 7 cities – yet robust sales in Q1 2021 and Q4 2020 significantly dented the overall unsold stock in the region. Housing sales are driven by bottomed-out property prices, limited-period stamp duty cuts, developer discounts, and the lowest-best home loan rates.

Approx. 20,350 units were sold in MMR in Q1 2021, of which 68% (approx. 13,750 units) were sold in Mumbai, 18% (approx. 3,650 units) in Navi Mumbai, and 14% (approx. 2,950 units) in Thane.

“Mumbai is one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world,” says Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants. “A reduction in overall acquisition cost by anything between 5-15% made a huge difference in buyer sentiments. Low home loan interest rates and developer discounts, and timely intervention of the government byways of stamp duty reductions and a 50% cut in premium charges also helped the region get its mojo back even during COVID-19.”

City-wise Analysis

While overall unsold stock in MMR declined by 8%, individually, Thane reported the highest yearly decline of 14% in Q1 2021 against the corresponding period in Q1 2020, followed by Navi Mumbai with 12% and Mumbai with a 5% reduction. Mumbai saw the least decline among the three despite increased housing sales is because it was the only city in MMR that added ample new supply in the first quarter this year and the preceding quarter.

• Thane currently has approx. 28,000 unsold units. It was 32,740 units a year ago. The city saw total housing sales of approx. 2,950 units in Q1 2021- increasing by 26% against Q1 2020. In new supply, the city added just 800 new units in Q1 2021 – a decline of 61% against the corresponding period in 2020 (when 2,070 new units were launched).
• Navi Mumbai saw its unsold inventory declined by 12% in the year – from 40,850 units in Q1 2020 to approx. 35,800 units as of Q1 2021-end. Housing sales in the first quarter rose by 49% y-o-y with 3,650 units sold. It was 2,450 units in Q1 2020. In new supply, the city added just 1,110 units in Q1 2021 against 2,850 units last year, thus declining by 61% on yearly basis.
• Mumbai saw its unsold stock declined by 5% in the year – from 1,39,590 units in Q1 2020 to approx. 1,33,240 units as of Q1 2021. The city recorded robust sales in Q1 2021 of 13,750 units against 9,120 units a year ago – increasing by 51% in a year. As for new supply, in contrast to other cities in the region, Mumbai saw a massive 132% yearly jump – from 5,560 units in Q1 2020 to 12,920 units in Q1 2021.

About the author- Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants